I analyze U.S. government spending multipliers conditional on the political cycle. The results indicate that, in many specifications, multipliers are positive during second terms and negative during first terms. Moreover, across all formulations, multipliers are positive under Democratic administrations and negative under Republican administrations. These findings are robust to alternative controls and model specifications, and they underscore the pivotal role of political expectations in shaping the sign and magnitude of fiscal spending multipliers.
 

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