On the Effects of Taxation on Growth: an Empirical Assessment

Alfò MarcoCarbonari LorenzoTrovato Giovanni
CEIS Research Paper
Growth models predict that taxation may have permanent effects on per capita real GDP growth. We look at, and test this prediction for 21 OECD countries, over the period 1965-2010. We employ a semi-parametric technique - namely, a Finite Mixture model - to estimate an augmented version of the Barro (1990) model, in order to consider both direct and indirect effects of taxation on capital share parameters. The estimation technique allows to deal with unobserved heterogeneity and to perform a cluster analysis. Our results support the idea that taxes are generally harmful for growth. The coefficient estimates indicate that a cut in the corporate income tax rate by 10 % raises the GDP growth rate by 0.9% while a cut in the personal income tax rate by 10% raises the GDP growth rate by 1%.

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Number: 480
Keywords: Economic growth, taxation, classification
JEL codes: H30,O30,O40
Volume: 18
Issue: 1
Date: Friday, May 8, 2020
Revision Date: Friday, May 8, 2020